Are Bulls Panicking Yet?
2025 WINTER SUBSCRIPTION SPECIAL- Our Winter Special of $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription ENDS TOMORROW (TUESDAY) NIGHT! We hope you’ll join us to take advantage of new tools going live Monday and our full tools and ticker coverage of 600+ securities! Enter code WINTER2025 at checkout.
Tonight’s YouTube video covers a lot of ground, so I definitely recommend checking it out. We discuss some potential long opportunities that have shown good relative strength in recent weeks as well as a current look at the market and the VIX. You can watch the YouTube video by clicking here.
Yesterday, we indicated a lack of surprise if we were to consolidate or retest lows, and we certainly did today, shooting past prior lows as participants displayed having a "bad case of the Mondays,” as explained in the great movie called Office Space. SPX once again retested the lower Keltner channel, which of course meant a lower price this time, given that the lower Keltner is pointing lower. Based on the chart alone, this could be a concerning setup implying the potential for a waterfall lower, but we aren’t only using charts here, are we? Let’s see what gamma exposure (GEX) has to say about the doomsdayers.
It’s not surprising to see elevated volume (the light blue horizontal line) at prices traded today, but the volume at 6000 did stand out to me, mostly because we’ve seen that for several days despite not touching 6000 since 4 days ago. Might this imply a whipsaw back up? There’s always a short squeeze around the corner, but the starting point matters, and we don’t yet see direct clues that a sustained rebound has started (or any rebound, for that matter). The GEX Levels chart below does show the lower Dealer Cluster zone shifting downward to 5700-5800, so we’re seeing the zone shift directly into the range mentioned in a recent YouTube video from a couple of days ago, with a test of 5800 seeming likely at a minimum.
While GEX did grow more negative, we are still within the outer limits of neutral territory for SPX, though SPY is still close to a lower extreme. As of now, 5800 looks like a solid target, but it’s questionable whether or not we will see lower prices. GEX needs to shift lower (or not shift lower) as price moves to 5800 to give us more conviction regarding the reversal point for this current down move. I do like the confluence of the lower Keltner channel and a possible overshoot to 5800 as at least a logical place where a larger bounce can occur.
DIA’s action today looked fairly similar to SPX, but I will point out an overall larger difference: DIA has been making higher highs since the 20th, while SPX has been making lower highs. The chart below also shows DIA’s upper Keltner channel slightly rising, although we have the concern of the downward slop forming on the lower Keltner. The broadening “megaphone” or whatever you want to call it (I think it might be a sideways traffic cone) at least signifies growing volatility, a theme we highlighted yesterday for those who might have recently awakened from a coma.
DIA has entered the green target box at 430, which could stretch down to 425, though volume looks to be mostly at current prices from today or higher. The volume at the 455 strike is especially interesting, given that it represents the 2nd highest volume of the day. “Grandpa stocks” maintain relative strength, in fact, gramps may be on his way to becoming one of those 155 year olds collecting social security if this keeps up.
Our 3D graph reveals important details about the dates where various GEX clusters are concentrated. I find it interesting that we’ve been talking about the March OpEx as a possible bullish timeframe for weeks now, and every time I think GEX will shift to reveal something more negative, it doesn’t. DIA shows the largest negative clusters expiring this Friday, with 445 as the largest positive cluster with a March 21 expiry. A positive move into OpEx would require a very volatile and large move up, but this wouldn’t be without precedent. Hopefully we’ll continue to find clues as we get closer that will either validate or kill this notion with time to position for what actually happens.
Here’s the Discord link if you haven’t joined us yet! Access is free for some channels, and new members have a 7-day trial within Discord to see how we operate. We have an active community of thoughtful traders who chime in throughout the day, sharing ideas and opportunities as we see them.
If you’re interested in accessing our tools and analytics, be sure to check out our website! More improvements coming by Tuesday morning including backtested algos and chart indicators!
If you’re interested in learning more about our strategy and approach, we address all of these topics in our Geek University course which is included in all memberships.
We recently posted a YouTube video, and we have many other short videos, so give our channel a look if you’re curious about recent market commentary and ideas as well as gamma (GEX) concepts explained.
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
