Countdown To J-Powell
We posted a new YouTube video this evening, covering SPY, QQQ, GS, GLD, and AVGO, so check it out if you have just a few minutes. We’ll touch on some of those in this newsletter. We had a good day in our Discord channel, alerting our subscribers that we were taking profits in NFLX and GLD, which locked in nice gains for those positions within our Educational Portfolio. We also saw the market largely cooperate with signals from gamma (GEX) today, which helped some of the 0 DTE traders in the group.
What Do We See Ahead As We approach Fed Day On Wednesday?
SPX has a big dealer cluster at 5700, potentially all the way to 5785, and GEX remains bullish at over 1B. We are over the Hull Moving Average as well as the middle Keltner channel, so all of the boxes are checked to keep me away from being comfortable shorting beyond betting on small intraday pullbacks. At this moment, the momentum is higher and we have room to run. That said, I still think we could see a choppy drop of almost 100 points or greater and the upside will still be intact. Can such a drop happen before the Fed, and during futures contract roll week? I would be less surprised by a lack of much movement at all, at least before the Fed and VIX expiration, but it’s possible.
SPX GEX levels show a likely 5700-5785 Dealer Cluster Zone target to the upside, with high volume at 5700 today as well.
SPX total GEX remains evelated and positive at 1.17B. We find it hard to be bearish when GEX is over 1B, but we also like to await pullbacks to buy when we are in such an environment, because positive GEX can also be a contrarian signal in the very short term. The market doesn’t like to reward complacent traders, so the euphoric moves higher are often met with shakeouts back down before the next leg higher.
SPX Historical GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com
QQQ’s chart is starting to look more bullish, with GEX also backing the upside targets of 480 and 490-493 as long as we hold the 460-469 area.
GEX changes for QQQ have been more concerning than for SPY or SPX, however, with a sharp drop from over 600M back to almost zero today. This is a development worth watching, especially with the VIX and VVIX ticking higher today.
QQQ Historical GEXt: www.geeksoffinance.com
As mentioned earlier, we covered a number of ideas on our YouTube video tonight, with GS being one of them. While the Keltner channels don’t look particularly bullish, price has shown respect for the lower Keltner channel, and GEX also matches the middle Keltner, giving reason to expect a possible move toward 493.
Looking at our GEX Dashboard,GEX is positive, and we have a big cluster at 500 as well. We also cover GLD and AVGO in our YouTube video, so check it out for more insights on GS and more.
Not only do we have VIX expiration Wednesday morning, and the Fed announcement Wednesday, but we also have a 20-year bond auction tomorrow afternoon after we get retail sales and housing data, amongst more. So the next couple of days are packed full of potential volatility moves. We’ll want to stay on our toes, and we hope you’ll watch our insights and join our discussions intraday in our Discord channel. We’ll see you tomorrow!
Source: Econoday.com
join us in our free Discord channel (or become a paying subscriber for a lot more) And we will share some real-time updates on how we see GEX shifting in the 0 DTE markets. Hopefully you’ll join us!
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