We’re approaching two potentially pivotal points this week: VIX monthly options expiration premarket Wednesday and NVDA earnings after hours Wednesday. Both events carry the potential to catalyze a larger move in either direction. We go over several relevant factors in today’s YouTube video, and below we’ll discuss a SPY/SPX comparison as well as a quick look at TLT and the VIX.

SPY and SPX both show a strong move higher off of the middle Keltner, not quite filling the gap, but making higher highs since the gap down on Friday. 597 gets us to a retest of the Hull Moving Average from below.

Ever since Friday, both SPY and SPX have shown a positive move in total gamma (GEX), though SPY slightly downticked today while SPX slightly increased. As you can see on the chart below, we see SPY hovering around the zero GEX line and we have the largest GEX clusters above, not below, with 600 being prominent.

We can see 600 as the largest GEX cluster other than today’s GEX, which will roll off premarket tomorrow.

SPY 3D GEX Graph: www.geeksoffinance.com

SPX is also displaying a similar target, 6000 as the largest GEX cluster and the lower edge of the G1 Dealer Cluster. We should note that today we saw unusual volume all the way down at 5000, despite the lack of GEX currently, and from a risk/reward perspective, the high odds of hitting 6000 are somewhat dampened by the fact that 6000 is barely 1.5% away.

SPX continues to show increasing positive GEX, though marginally. We consider the reading to be “neutral” below 1B, but the trend has still been positive for a couple of days, and we are essentially where we were a month ago.

SPX Historical GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com

Let’s take a detour and look at a ticker that has been beaten up and maligned for a number of weeks: TLT. TLT has been in a strong downtrend since September, dropping below and eventually hugging the lower Keltner channel along the pathway lower. We gapped up today, but then faded, though I think the significant point is that we are above the Hull. Upside targets (if 90.20 holds) include 92 and 95 overhead. Looking back, we’ve been above the Hull and failed before with TLT, but let’s look at some reasons that might point to a rebound occurring soon.

GEX is positive, and the largest cluster is at 93. We don’t see much negative GEX below 90, showing a lack of interest below 90. While it’s possible to drop below 90, my base expectation according to GEX is that we probably hold 90 as a floor in the near-term.

Looking at the GEX Levels chart below, we saw a lot of volume today at higher strikes, relatively speaking. 92 and 95 stick out as the areas of the most interest.

@i3_invest on Twitter posted that TLT outflows right now match a previous instance that preceded a large spike in price. Is this time different or the same? I can certainly say the lead-up to where we are has been more negative, so I am not sure, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Lastly, let’s jump back over to the VIX, which has respected the 15-18 area we said we expected to see as the range prior to tomorrow’s VIX expiration. Today’s rejection was almost perfectly off of the middle Keltner at that 18-area. Do we drop all the way back to 13.6 or do we make another run for a higher level above 18?

Volume today was elevated at 20, and we even see 17 showing higher volume than the current level of the VIX, and this is also concerning. The higher high for the VIX today warrants caution, and it’s entirely possible that the move higher for indices may conclude as soon as tomorrow and then result in more downside for markets. The overall GEX picture for indices points to eventual higher prices, but caution flags are present at the moment.

Join the conversation in Discord tomorrow and we’ll report what we’re seeing as the data unfolds!

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Change is Imminent

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Change is Imminent

6000 Or Bust

VIX Expiration & NVDA Ahead

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