5900: So Close, I Can Almost Touch It
We made specific mention of what we thought was a big and noticeable gamma (GEX) shift within SPX to the 5900 level back on October 14 in a Discord GEX update, and we’ve come full-circle right back to that area in OpEx week. We are so close to 5900, it must be a slam dunk! Well, not so fast…Yes, we still believe it’s a highly probable target, and we can say the same about QQQ 500. But do we see 5900 tomorrow, or will we have to wait? The answer is not so clear. We discuss a slightly different agenda on tonight’s YouTube video, including ideas involving PLTR, PANW, UNG, and ROKU, plus more. You can find the video by clicking here.
Let’s jump right into SPX: We continue to hold the Hull Moving Average, which helps to keep alive the seemingly permanent bullish trend. That said, the last few days haven’t been easy, which is somewhat typical of OpEx (despite the bullish bias). Take today for instance: A big gap up, then a sell off back to yesterday’s highs. The Keltner channels continue rising, with SPX almost reaching the 5900 we see on the GEX charts. This confluence is certainly a mark in favor of 5900 very soon, in my opinion.
Our GEX Levels chart shows SPX still has room to not just 5900, but even higher, with the red Dealer Cluster Zone stretching almost to 6000, where we see another sizable GEX cluster.
SPX GEX Levels: www.geeksoffinance.com
SPX remains strongly positive in terms of total net GEX, remaining above 1B.
SPX Historical GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com
We don’t usually delve into the granular details of SPX GEX, but I want to go over a few interesting observations about SPX GEX clusters and where they’re concentrated, because one of the major influences behind our own process of selecting trades for our educational portfolio (currently up 109% YTD, by the way) is where GEX expiries are concentrated in terms of time and price. The biggest clusters you see below are 0 DTE clusters that will be gone tomorrow morning, which is fairly typical. But I highlighted the largest clusters applying to tomorrow specifically. The first example below is the SPX positive cluster at 5875, about 34 points higher than today’s close:
SPX 3D GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com
5875 is fairly close to 5900, but where is all of the 5900 GEX we see sticking out on our GEX Data Graph and the GEX Levels Chart? 5900 GEX is sort of spread out across a number of dates, but interestingly, the largest cluster at 5900 isn’t situated at 10/18 OpEx, but instead, it’s next week, 10/25.
SPX 3D GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com
We also have a potentially confusing skew to positive GEX tomorrow because of a very large in-the-money positive cluster at 5800, obviously quite a ways below today’s close. What can we do with this info? Does this mean we are biased lower tomorrow, then higher into 10/25? Not necessarily. Our plan is to simply wait for the open and see what GEX tells us in the morning. We may have a better indication at that point, and hopefully plenty of time to take action.
SPX 3D GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com
QQQ has been even more brutal than SPX, taking no prisoners the last few days. I would clearly call this a shakeout..But who’s getting shaken out? I lean toward bulls, which makes me think those higher targets (500+ QQQ and 5900 SPX) are in the cards. Look at that gap up and go 3 days ago, appearing to be a breakout. Then a big red candle that erased the entire move. Then Wednesday, bears felt like they had it locked in, but buyers showed up, creating a wick on the candle due to eager buying. Then today, we gap up again, back over the Hull, only to fade below it again. Wow, I’m queasy just typing it out. Keltners have moved up to 504.75 on QQQ, almost a 3% move from here to the upside, if the market isn’t done yet.
QQQ GEX still supports a tag of 500-505. We are definitely prone to having a fear of hypes, I mean- heights, and you can see how far down the Dealer Cluster Zone is. But the odds favor higher with positive GEX, the VIX (discussed more in YouTube), and what we see with SPX, at least for the immediate moment.
QQQ GEX Levels: www.geeksoffinance.com
One of several ideas we discussed in YouTube is ROKU, which appears to be flagging, despite relatively bearish candles the last two days. Wicks overhead indicate potentially eager sellers dumping shares. But the Keltners look quite bullish and we are still above the middle channel.
80 represents a big GEX cluster, and big volume today too, and as you’ll see on the second chart, most of that 80 expires tomorrow. Can ROKU stage a $3 move to reach that magnet at 80 above? We won’t have to wait long to see, though we may not have an entry either. I’ll be watching this early in the morning.
ROKU GEX Levels: www.geeksoffinance.com
ROKU 3D GEX: www.geeksoffinance.com
With NFLX rallying after hours post-earnings today, and housing starts reported at 8:30AM ET, it’s hard to say how we’ll open tomorrow. Also keep in mind SPX has 2 expirations tomorrow: Morning options and normal expirations at market closing. So we have a good shot to see a sizable shift in GEX after the market opens. We hope you’ll join us in Discord for real-time insights throughout the day and hopefully we’ll end up with some clear signals!
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