Bringing In 2025 With a Nail Biter
2024 HOLIDAY SUBSCRIPTION SPECIAL- $300 off of the annual Portfolio Manager subscription! We JUST rolled out 500+ new stock and ETF tickers on the dashboard. Check it out for yourself! Enter code HOLIDAYS at checkout! We still have 2 of 7 discounted subscriptions available for this limited time promotion.
Markets ended 2024 with a whimper, which is highly unusual given how strong the market was throughout the year. We go over some things we’re watching in SPY, the VIX, VZ, META, BTC, and more in our latest YouTube video, which you can watch by clicking here.
Wayne Whaley (see partial x.com post below) gives reason to be cautiously optimistic about the next few days for major indices, pointing out that while the December 24-31 performance was the worst since 1937 at -2.62%, our sample historical examples show ensuing 5-day performances that were quite strong at +2.53%. He gives 7-1 odds that we see a reversal bounce next week.
Looking at the VIX, I don’t see a compelling case for volatility to go up a lot or down a lot, but the 4-hour chart shows the VIX to be below the Hull moving average, causing my bias to be slightly toward volatility finding downside toward VIX 13-14 soon. This doesn’t mean that the VIX can’t spike, but a trip to VIX 20 might be all that is in the cards, barring an unexpected shock that causes a huge VIX spike (always possible, which is why we hedge our long positions).
SPX is still looking negative, though we’re very close to the lower daily Keltner channel, merely 30 points below Tuesday’s closing price. We’re below the Hull, so perhaps we can still see downside this week. Futures are up as I’m typing this, and I think upside shows better risk/reward, but timeframe is important, and I’m not so sure we won’t see another push lower before the week is over.
Gamma (GEX) did make a modest turn upward, though we’re still in a negative GEX environment at -439M.
SPX is in the green box, and we do see some volume (light blue horizontal bars) Tuesday at mostly higher strikes, but we have to be mindful that the box extends down to 5800, where we see a fairly sizable GEX cluster and accompanying volume. The lower Keltner at 5848 is right in the middle of the box, a reasonable target in the event we decline further.
Tomorrow’s largest GEX cluster that is expiring is at 5835, interestingly, but we do see a sizable positive cluster at 6150 looking out to January 17. This GEX picture can change tomorrow, and it likely will to some extent, but looking at the picture below, as of this moment I would place decent odds on a continued struggle to gain positive momentum for this week, then at some point we begin a fairly nice rally into that January 17 expiry. With negative GEX and near-term lower clusters, we need to see a few things shift to make that a reality. This also includes technically regaining the Hull at 5936, which may move lower in coming days, so we’ll update our analysis along the way.
We look at BTC in our YouTube video, so I’ll take a look at ETH for our readers to complement the BTC analysis. The chart looks bullish to me, we’re consolidating sideways after finding buyers around the 3000 area. We’re above the Hull and my bias is to the upside above 3300.
Tuesday saw big volume at 4000, and we see decent positive GEX at that level as well. But for starters, since we’re just out of the G2 Dealer Cluster with big GEX at 3300 (also the Hull we just pointed out above), let’s look to 3800 as a target if it continues moving higher.
While ETH show overall positive GEX, which we consider to be a positive for bulls, Friday’s expiry shows the largest GEX cluster to be a negative cluster at 3300. The next largest cluster is negative too, at 3250. Going along with what I said about the market this week, I am open to the possibility that we drop further this week, but begin a nice move up next week or beyond as we approach January OpEx.
We’re finding individual opportunities every day, despite whatever the market is doing, so join us in Discord as we discuss what we see intraday on the first trading day of 2025. We hope to see you there!
If you’re interested in accessing our tools and analytics, be sure to check out our website. We just rolled out 500 new tickers and speed enhancements!
If you’re interested in learning more about our strategy and approach, we address all of these topics in our Geek University course which is included in all memberships.
We recently posted a YouTube video, and we have many other short videos, so give our channel a look if you’re curious about recent market commentary and ideas as well as gamma (GEX) concepts explained.
Thanks for being part of our community and know that we invite your feedback!
The information provided by Geeks of Finance LLC is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be, nor should be construed as, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or activity. Please view our Investment Adviser Disclaimer and Risk Disclosure.
