Daily Preview: Thursday, July 18
Wednesday, July 17 Review:
Our earlier than usual Tuesday evening newsletter was correct, we saw a negative bias today, as indicated by QQQ gamma (GEX) which showed a significant amount of negative GEX in focus for Wednesday’s expiration (also VIX expiration). observing the GEX-predicted move didn’t make trading it any easier, as the gap down this morning pretty much meant that most of the meat on the bone was eaten by the previous day dreamers willing to hold overnight and the overnight futures traders who are running the delicate balance of avoiding another heart attack while consuming enough coffee to stay awake all night.
Don’t forget, it’s OpEx week, a timeframe noteworthy for tricky whipsaws that erase false hope temporarily given to bulls and bears alike. Occasionally, we do see a short-term low or high made on OpEx week.
SPX showed a sizable gap down, and efforts to rebound today failed, leaving 5515 as a possibility.
From a contrarian perspective, we need to acknowledge that GEX is as low (lower, in fact) than the previous June GEX lows, which also preceded market lows. But the big picture leaves plenty of room to the downside, and SPX GEX is still positive but in the neutral category, and I’d expect SPX to eventually show negative GEX if we were truly heading for a market bottom. So we are either early in a new correction, or we will rebound in the next couple of days from this “less positive” starting point.
SPX still shows slightly positive GEX, and that’s with the big negative expiry today, which makes it look more negative than it will theoretically appear in the morning. We don’t see substantial interest in lower prices right now.
GEX levels show a very close tagging almost in the green target box, and volume is elevated at 5650 today, a potential target.
Going along with both the Keltner channel and GEX, 5650 is the biggest single strike for Friday. Do keep in mind we see a bunch of smaller negative GEX clusters.
Yesterday, we said the QQQ looked less bullish, and sure enough…Big gap down and go down from the big previous discoverty.
What are we Looking For On Thursday, July 18?
We do have Jobless Claims and a few other events for tomorrow, including the 10-year TIPs auction, But either way, we wil check out what we see on the GEX analysis and go from there!
Stay with us in Discord as we share real-time GEX data as we see it and we have some active subscribers also sharing what they see, including in the free channel. Thanks for reading!
