Weekly Preview: July 15-19
Friday, July 12 & Full Week Review:
After noting both the shorter-term inverse relationship with DIA/IWM and SPY/QQQ, as well as IWM (in particular) showing a 210 potential target area when it was closer to 200 at the time, we saw DIA and IWM stage impressive rallies last week while QQQ and SPY/SPX showed failure to get above key resistance. The upper Keltner channel continues to be a good guide for where these moves stop, and gamma (GEX) data has been in agreement, the higher conviction reading for me.
We had a good GEX picture Friday (clear for trading), allowing us to buy the dip to 4520 close to 11Am as we saw large positive GEX there, and sure enough, price rebounded from the lows, ultimately reaching 5650 that we' mentioned earlier.
GEX is still solidly positive at over 1B, though we see GEX-Weighted volatility moving ever so slightly higher. Note that we have VIX monthly option expiration this coming Wednesday, the 17th, and regular monthly expiration Friday, so we have potential to see some trend changes this week on a micro scale (or perhaps larger, we don’t know). A successful subscriber mentioned in a message that he’s better off avoiding OpEx weeks for trading, so it’s certainly an open question as to whether or not you can participate during OpEX successfully or not.
QQQ actually looks even more bearish, with failure to reach the upper Keltner channel on an attempted retest of highs and price closing below the Hull Moving Average, setting up the low 480s as a target, in theory. GEX is almost neutral but this also implies it can very quicky change depending on 0 DTE options and whichever other direction suggested.
What are we Looking For On Friday, July 12?
Powell once again whispers his sweet nothings (confused for a stutter sometimes) on Monday at 12PM ET, but otherwise it’s a faily light economic week, just pay attention to the bond auctions and a few data announcements in between. With overall conditions, a larger move does not require a big headline, though they often coincide.
Stay with us in Discord as we get the CPI number to contend with, and look for any opportunities that may pop up. We have some very skilled subscribers also sharing their trades as they incorporate GEX..It’s been fun! Thanks for reading!
